VC is dead

That may be over dramatic, however I feel it is directionally correct.

Here is why I think so:

  1. The era of cheap money is over, unless we see rates crashing down dramatically I believe the asset class struggles.

  2. The cost of starting, running and scaling is dropping every day. The $1b single founder company is around the corner.

  3. IPO markets are valuing existing technology companies at record low multiples which makes listing unattractive which makes the primary exit option for the asymmetric bet less likely.

I don’t think venture capital is going anywhere. Risk capital will always be available, it may come at a much higher price and may not be as readily available but it isn’t going anywhere. 

Every week when entrepreneurs email me asking for $1m without a product or some traction I sigh loudly. 

The coming years will be interesting as we will see who was swimming naked when the tide goes out. 

Published July 9, 2024